TRANSITION REPORT 2014 Innovation in Transition

Increased economic uncertainty

Events in Ukraine have sharply increased economic uncertainty in the region, dashing hopes that the continuous decline seen in the region’s growth rate since 2011 would be reversed. As the events in Crimea developed in late February and early March 2014, Ukraine’s currency lost around 30 per cent of its value against the US dollar between January and May 2014. At the same time, credit default swap spreads on government bonds widened sharply, while net private capital inflows turned sharply negative. In late March it was announced that an IMF programme had been agreed, but this brought only temporary respite, as disturbing news from eastern Ukraine further unsettled markets. A two-year IMF stand-by agreement was approved to assist Ukraine with the macroeconomic adjustments and structural reforms necessary to improve the country’s external position.

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